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In the next decade, Guyana and Suriname are set to become significant players in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, with potential exports reaching up to 12 million metric tonnes annually. This growth is driven by their abundant natural gas reserves and strategic positioning for shipping to key markets worldwide. 

The Rise of Offshore Gas Exports 
Guyana and Suriname, two small Caribbean coastal nations in South America, are poised to impact the global LNG market significantly. As natural gas becomes an increasingly preferred alternative to coal, these countries are entering the market at a crucial juncture, offering an abundant and cost-effective “bridge fuel” to meet global energy demands while supporting climate pledges. 

Globally, LNG demand is projected to grow by over 50% by 2040, driven by a shift from coal in energy-intensive sectors, especially across China, India, and other Asian economies aiming to support sustainable development and economic growth. In 2023, global LNG trade reached 404 million tonnes, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022. According to Shell Energy’s latest reports, LNG demand is expected to rise to approximately 625-685 million tonnes annually by 2040. 

A report by Wood Mackenzie, titled “Can Guyana and Suriname LNG compete against new global supply?”, reveals that up to 12 million metric tonnes per annum (mmtpa) of LNG could originate from Guyana and Suriname’s reserves by 2035. The Guyana-Suriname basin, rich in natural resources, holds an estimated 13 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, mainly in Guyana’s Haimara cluster and Suriname’s Block 52. 

Economic Viability and Strategic Timing 
LNG projects in these countries exhibit strong economic potential, with breakeven costs estimated at approximately USD $6/mmbtu, excluding shipping and regasification expenses. While certain fiscal terms remain undefined, commercial structure developments are underway. Experts predict that Suriname’s project development may advance more rapidly, with first gas expected by 2031. 

This timing aligns well with recent shifts in the U.S. energy landscape. The Biden administration’s pause on new U.S. LNG export licenses could open a supply window in the mid-2030s. Amanda Bandeira, Latin America Upstream Oil and Gas Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, notes, “With the pause on U.S. LNG export projects, Guyana and Suriname can emerge as cost-competitive regional suppliers, serving Caribbean and South American demand while also positioning well to reach key Asian markets.” 

Geographic and Strategic Advantages 
In addition to favorable timing, Guyana and Suriname enjoy a geographic advantage. Their location on the Caribbean Sea allows direct access to Asian, European, and African markets without requiring transit through the Panama Canal, which has faced recent disruptions due to droughts. This positioning reduces shipping costs, particularly for regions with high demand, such as Southeast Asia. 

A New Chapter in Economic Transformation

The rise of the LNG industry builds on Guyana’s recent economic transformation following ExxonMobil’s major oil discovery in 2015. Once among the poorest nations in the Western Hemisphere, Guyana has seen its economy triple in size since beginning crude oil extraction in 2019, with citizens now receiving unprecedented government payouts. For both Guyana and Suriname, LNG development represents a promising new chapter, set to catalyze growth and position them as key LNG suppliers on the world stage.

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