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By 2040, the demand for clean-energy technologies will require a significant increase in critical minerals such as lithium, graphite, nickel, and cobalt compared to 2020. These minerals are essential for batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), smartphones, and the broader transition to clean energy. However, this growing demand is exacerbated by the geographic concentration of these resources. For example, approximately 80% of the world’s cobalt reserves are found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), while China controls 70-80% of the refining market and more than half of the battery market.

In response, the United States and the European Union have invested in the Lobito Corridor, a sub-Saharan railway project designed to improve cobalt access while reducing reliance on China’s supply chain. The initiative includes constructing 350 miles of new railway in Zambia and upgrading 800 miles of existing tracks from the DRC to Angola. The Lobito Corridor is expected to enhance cobalt supply routes, but whether it will effectively meet the West’s strategic goals remains to be seen.

Currently, most cobalt mined in the DRC is exported as raw material for refining, primarily in China. Transporting this raw cobalt is a costly and lengthy process. The most commonly used route involves driving 2,000 miles from Kolwezi, the DRC’s mining hub, to the Indian Ocean port of Durban, South Africa. Border delays, strikes, and port inefficiencies often cause significant disruptions, leading to month-long transit times.

The Lobito Corridor offers a more efficient solution, running westward from Kolwezi to the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola. This route is significantly shorter than the Durban option, taking only eight days compared to the usual month, and it leverages existing tracks that have been largely underutilized. The switch from road transport to rail reduces both costs and carbon emissions, making it a more sustainable alternative.

Despite these advantages, the railway infrastructure is not yet fully optimized. Originally built between 1902 and 1931, the tracks suffered extensive damage during Angola’s civil war, leaving only 3%operational by the early 2000s. Although China financed a $2 billion restoration between 2006 and 2014, significant investment is still required to make the corridor fully competitive. In 2023, a consortium named the Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) secured a 30-year concession to manage the railway. This consortium plans to invest over $550 million in improvements across Angola and the DRC, with plans to extend the railway into Zambia and integrate regional mining operations.

However, the Lobito Corridor alone cannot guarantee cobalt access for the West. Chinese companies still dominate mining operations in the DRC, and these firms typically export raw materials back to China. Additionally, China is investing over $1 billion to upgrade the Tazara Railway, which runs from Zambia’s copper mines to Tanzania’s port of Dar es Salaam. Given China’s infrastructure expertise, this rival project could be completed even before the Lobito Corridor, potentially limiting its strategic impact.

Even if the Lobito Corridor succeeds, China could still benefit from the new infrastructure. Chinese companies hold significant stakes in the firms managing the project and control the Lobito port itself, ensuring their continued influence over the supply chain. This raises questions about the extent to which the corridor will reduce Western dependence on China.

A broader critique of the Lobito Corridor is its focus on exporting raw materials instead of fostering local value-added processing. By shipping unprocessed cobalt out of Africa, the region misses out on the economic benefits of refining. Both the DRC and Zambia have expressed interest in developing local refining capacity, aiming to create special economic zones for preliminary battery production. While the United States and European Union have shown support, concrete steps toward realizing this vision have been slow.

Developing local refining capacity would be beneficial for sub-Saharan Africa, the West, and global climate objectives. Processing in the DRC could reduce emissions by 30% compared to existing methods and would lower costs by eliminating the need to ship raw materials to China. Moreover, such investments could help the DRC capture a larger share of the global battery market, improving the country’s economic prospects.

However, establishing refining plants in sub-Saharan Africa presents challenges. Building a single plant could take two years and require $39 million in investment, with a 12-year payback period. The success of these plants also depends on stable governance, reliable electricity, and upgraded infrastructure—areas where the Lobito Corridor could play a supporting role. Political instability in the DRC remains a concern, along with the risk of exacerbating existing human rights abuses linked to the country’s mining sector.

Interest from non-Chinese partners in Africa’s critical minerals is growing, coinciding with a slowdown in Chinese investment in the region. While the Lobito Corridor is a step in the right direction, securing a reliable cobalt supply and reducing dependence on China will require more than just new railways. Strategic investments in local refining and partnerships that prioritize mutual benefit over resource extraction are essential for achieving a sustainable and balanced future.